Do quantum computers pose a cybersecurity risk?
With their incredible computing power, quantum computers could pose a cybersecurity risk. But how real is the danger of such a scenario?
Computer performance has continued to evolve over the past few decades. That Moore’s law states that the number of circuits on computer chips doubles every twelve to 24 months. As a result, performance also increases. But it seems as if we will reach an end to this trend in the foreseeable future.
Then quantum computers should represent the next step in technology. These are already showing breathtaking performance today. An arithmetic operation that a normal computer manages in about four years is something already with a quantum computer resolved after a few seconds. But that also harbors enormous risks for the security of modern IT systems.
How real is the risk that quantum computers pose to IT security?
Because with today’s computing capacity, it often takes a very long time to guess reliable passwords and thus gain access to user accounts. But if a quantum computer tests several thousand passwords at the same time, this could lead to a significantly higher success rate.
It is therefore not at all improbable that current security systems will suddenly no longer be effective. On scientific paper from China now shows how critical such a scenario would be. Researchers used a small quantum computer to decode RSA algorithms, i.e. those used in online banking, for example.
However, the decrypted code was relatively short and therefore not really representative. But that already shows how realistic such a scenario is.
When will quantum computers become a threat?
Experts assume that decoding an RSA algorithm requires a quantum computer with up to 10,000 qubits. A conventional supercomputer already manages around 39 stable qubits. Only when qubits are in a stable state can they be used effectively for calculations.
So a system with 500 qubits is useless if they are not stable. This requires temperatures of minus 273 degrees Celsius, among other things. The effort involved in such projects is therefore extremely high. In addition to China and the USA, Europe is also establishing itself more and more as a serious competitor.
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