Sad certainty about the price now confirmed

Anyone who already drives an e-car or wants to move away from the combustion engine can look forward to lower costs over time. A study by the renowned Fraunhofer Institute has shown that electric cars will become cheaper over time. But the cost advantage hangs by a thread.

E-cars cheaper than combustion engines: After just three years, the time has come

E-cars will become cheaper than combustion engines over time, despite higher purchase prices. This was the result of a total cost comparison carried out by the Fraunhofer Institute on behalf of the state-owned Now GmbH. According to this, the first e-cars are arriving already after three years the cost parity with combustion models that are cheaper to buy.

At least that’s how fast it can be for mid-range models. compact and small cars are currently so much more expensive as e-cars than combustion engines that it much longer takes time to recoup the expenses through lower drive costs and other cost advantages such as the environmental bonus.

The problem is the sources from which the cost advantage of electric cars is fed: In addition to the prospectively lower energy costs for electricity, the Fraunhofer Institute calls the environmental bonusthe Exemption from vehicle tax and the revenue from the GHG quota.

All of these benefits are political incentives, to make the ramp-up of e-mobility more attractive. The environmental bonus is already being paid less than in 2022. The subsidy premium will continue to fall until 2025 is over. Also the tax advantage and the GHG quota are by no means guaranteed bonuses for eternity.

The only real advantage lies with the energy costs. While the analysis assumes that classic fuels will become more expensive as a result of CO₂ pricing, the ramp-up of e-mobility Electricity cheaper in perspective make.

The fewer environmental bonuses, the longer it takes for an e-car to pay off:

Without an environmental bonus, cheap e-cars have no future

If the additional incentives for e-cars are not included, it will probably take much longer for an electric car to catch up with a combustion engine in terms of overall costs. Even the end of the environmental bonus makes a big difference: “If the acquisition costs remain the same only vehicles in the middle class have a cost advantage over petrol engines exhibit,” according to the Fraunhofer Institute (source: Now Ltd).

But then the mid-range e-cars would cheaper only after five to eight years get away The small and compact cars considered in the analysis, on the other hand, would be at the same purchase price but without the environmental bonus itself still more expensive after a holding period of 15 years than comparable burners.

The current cost advantage therefore depends crucially on the subsidies for e-cars. Without them, it will be even more difficult for Stromer to prevail in the price war.