Hard times are coming for e-cars
The triumph of e-cars is in danger. This is the result of a study by the Center Automotive Research led by director and industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. He sees years of drought rolling in for Stromer on Germany’s roads.
Electric cars: New registrations will collapse in 2023 and 2024
E-cars have had a great start on a grand scale in recent years. But the sharp rise in sales and registration numbers is about to come to an abrupt end: over the next two years, the Halve electric car salesaccording to the Center Automotive Research (CAR) in a recent study.
From 720,000 new electric cars, the number will fall to 484,000 in 2023. The car experts expect the decline in the following year to be somewhat slower, but suddenly clear. In 2024, only 363,000 electric cars would be delivered. If the electric vehicles currently still account for more than a quarter (27 percent) of all new registrations in Germany, in 2 years they should only 12 percent left be (source: Handelsblatt).
“A drought is looming for electric cars in Germany,” sums up Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, the CAR director known as the car pope. A trend that has already begun: the growth in e-cars is currently around 4.5 percent. In the previous year, however, the number of electric vehicles increased by a whopping 75 percent. There can no longer be any talk of this dynamic.
For the CAR experts, the reasons for this are obvious – and the most important one is homemade: With the turn of the year, the environmental bonus will be reduced in a few weeks. E-cars will then effectively become more expensive for customers. In the industry it is said E-cars would not be worthwhile without an environmental bonus. From 2023 there will no longer be a state subsidy for plug-in hybrids.
The price is also important for the car pope when it comes to e-cars:
In addition, there is the generally gloomy economic situation with high inflation and a dwindling buying mood among consumers, as well as rising prices among car manufacturers.
E-car target 2030: Are the 15 million in danger?
The CAR assumes that the burglary Hit plug-in hybrids particularly hard becomes. A minus of 71 percent is expected as early as 2023, while pure electric cars would initially stagnate before sales would fall by almost a quarter in 2024. Things are not looking rosy for the federal government’s plans to have 15 million electric cars in stock by 2030.
According to Dudenhöffer “Years of Standstill” towards the mobility turnaround in Germany. He expects the trend to turn positive again in 2025 at the earliest, when manufacturers have created capacity for battery production in Europe.
